Prof Rustam Jumaev
Doctor of Political Science
Diplomatic Academy
University of World Economy and Diplomacy,
Republic of Uzbekistan
Tamilakhon Khaydarova
Undergraduate student
McGill University,
Canada
Key Words: Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, Azerbaijan, ethnic conflict, territorial dispute, sovereignty, war, displacement, international security, international law.
Introduction
Nagorno-Karabakh, a region of south-western Azerbaijan, was not internationally recognized despite its self-declared independence from 1992 to 2023. It has, also, been the reason of intense ethno-political and territorial disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan (Britannica) for decades. Despite its seemingly localized nature, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict extends beyond the Caucasus region showing how vulnerable the global security system and international law are. The conflict has a profound impact on the international stage, as it raises fundamental issues such as the effectiveness of international law, the sustainability of the collective security system and the selective approaches of world powers to the principles of justice.
Historically, Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous oblast of Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic (S.S.R.), which was mainly populated by the Armenian population. The region declared its independence under the name of the Republic of Artsakh after the Soviet Union was dismantled in the early 1990s, but its sovereignty was never recognized by the international community, including Armenia. The general territory, which includes the north-eastern flank of the Karabakh Range of the Lesser Caucasus and extends from the crest line of the range to the margin of the Kura River lowland at its foot, has a strategic importance and rich natural potential (Britannica). These features have created a unique conflict context and have only increased the political as well as ethnic complexity of the conflict.
Although the international community paid some attention to the conflict, it usually has been overshadowed by other global problems, like the war in Ukraine or the Israeli-Palestine conflict. After the 2020 armed operations, the crisis between Azerbaijan and Armenia started to be considered as almost over, with the parties negotiating a peace agreement. But ignoring the consequences, when humanitarian and legal issues remain unresolved, is dangerous and it undermines trust in international institutions that are supposed to ensure justice and stability for all.
All these historical, geographical, and demographic factors have turned the conflict into something more than just a territorial dispute. On the one hand, Azerbaijan defends the principle of territorial integrity, considering Karabakh as part of its recognized border. On the other hand, the Armenian population of the region has been trying to get the right to self-determination for decades, seeking national integrity or annexation to Armenia. There is also a conflict between state sovereignty – Azerbaijan’s right to control its territory – and humanitarian obligations to protect the rights and security of the population, especially during periods of hostilities.
All in all, the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia illustrates not only ethnopolitical and territorial disputes between the two states but also the weakness of the international system of law and security. This research paper examines the opposing positions of the parties, conflict’s historical evolution and its consequences for international law, regional stability, and international security. It will also show how the conflict undermines the legitimacy of existing institutions. This work will provide possible solutions to the conflict as well as reforms to international mechanisms for preventing and resolving similar crises in the future.
Historical Background
It is necessary to examine historical developments in detail to understand the current implications and challenges of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. From the beginning, Nagorno-Karabakh was officially an autonomous oblast within Azerbaijan S.S.R. Armenian population was not satisfied with the fact that the area in which it was predominant was not part of Armenia. As highlighted by Felix Light, Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh by Armenians, until 2023 had 100,000 inhabitants who were predominantly ethnic Armenians. For the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as for many in Armenia, this territory has always had an important historical and cultural meaning, while Azerbaijan considered it as an integral part of its territory. Despite the oblast’s predominantly Armenian population, the Soviet administration decided to include Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan, granting it autonomy, which as a result became a trigger toward future opposition clashes.
In 1988, when the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) began to weaken, Nagorno-Karabakh’s regional legislature passed a resolution declaring its intention to join the Republic of Armenia despite its official location within Azerbaijan (Center for Preventive Action). Armed fighting between the two Republics, which have a long history of ethnic tension, quickly followed (Center for Preventive Action). This led to the beginning of the first Karabakh War, which lasted from 1992 to 1994. The war claimed about 30,000 lives and led to massive population displacement (Galustyan). This only confirmed the fact that regional and international actors are unable to prevent violence. According to the Center for Preventive Action, the analytical unit within the United States based Council on Foreign Relations, by 1993, as a result of the armed actions; Armenia had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied 20 percent of this territory. In the 1990s, the Azerbaijani population was itself expelled from Nagorno-Karabakh and hundreds of thousands of people were displaced within Azerbaijan. A formal ceasefire was reached in 1993 with the help of Russia. This consolidated the de-facto independence of Karabakh under Armenian control. However, it did not receive international recognition, and all negotiations have reached an impasse. All this inability to move the problem beyond simple agreements has made the conflict chronic and protracted.
In late September 2020, heavy fighting broke out along the Azerbaijan -Nagorno-Karabakh border, killing more than seven thousand soldiers and civilians, with hundred more Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers wounded (Center for Preventive Action). This fight was characterized as the second Karabakh War. This had demonstrated that the absence of an effective political settlement makes the resumption of violence only a matter of time.
Even though there were numerous ceasefires, the root causes of the conflict have raised concerns in the region due to unresolved issues. This showed that diplomatic stagnation could easily turn into a new escalation.
The blockade of the corridor has created difficult living conditions and increased pressure for the local population. It also showed how humanitarian access can be used as an instrument of political pressure. Ertl highlights that the Lachin Corridor is the only road that connects the Republic of Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. It is a key artery for supplies, and residents in the territory reported severe shortages of basic food items and medication during the blockade (Ertl). This situation has left the population isolated, increasing their dependence on external factors.
Azerbaijan launched a decisive attack in September 2023, which ended with the surrender of the Armenian forces. The breakaway Republic and its institutions will “cease to exist” from 1 January 2024, the region’s separatist leader Samvel Shahramanyan has said (Ertl). About 100,000 Armenians were forced to leave the region.
As CIVICUS notes,
“When the end came, it came suddenly. […] A major Azerbaijan military offensive launched on 19 September quickly proved decisive. A ceasefire the following day confirmed Azerbaijan’s victory. On 28 September, Artsakh President Samvel Shahramanyan signed a decree dissolving all government institutions from 1 January 2024, bringing the unrecognized state’s 32-year existence to a close. By then, most of the population had already fled to Armenia.”
While the report emphasizes the abrupt end of the conflict, the mere fact of a mass exodus shows how vulnerable civilians have become in the absence of security guarantees.
Although international organizations, including the United Nations (UN) and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), tried to mitigate the losses and help resolve the issue peacefully, they failed to achieve desired results. The long-term consequences of the conflict like militarization of the region, the growing distrust between people, undermining peacemaking efforts, and deepening of geopolitical divisions proved that the neglect of the early signs of tension by the international community and regional authorities can lead to a massive humanitarian catastrophe.
Consequences of the Conflict
The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has had an ongoing impact on the South Caucasus. It has affected not only borders, but also the humanitarian situation, the security structure and international relations. Despite the official termination of the unrecognized Republic of Artsakh in January 2024, the consequences of the conflict continue to be felt both in Azerbaijan and Armenia and beyond their borders.
The most tragic consequence of the conflict has been on the people themselves: the mass exodus seems to be the last and most heart-breaking episode in the endless story of the struggle and displacement, when hundreds of thousands of people were forced to leave their homes due to their different ethnic backgrounds (Alieva). People were leaving because of fear, the nine-month blockade, and the lack of basic security guarantees. As Lida Minasyan notes, “the nine-month blockade and the offensive were meant to achieve the ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh” (CIVICUS). Displacement has led to the destruction of people’s holistic lives, social ties, and cultural identity. After being in these unstable conditions, people had to start all over again, without possessions, a sense of security, or mere confidence in the future.
However, the consequences of the conflict are not limited to a humanitarian crisis. They also manifest themselves in the systemic inefficiency of international institutions. Leila Alieva mentions that the Minsk group of the OSCE did not change but rather solidified the status quo between Armenia and Azerbaijan. International efforts not only did not contribute to the resolution of the conflict but also hindered the dynamics of change. It is known that for 30 years, no measures were taken by international organizations or governments to implement four resolutions of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) about the immediate withdrawal of Armenian troops from Karabakh (Alieva). This has shown that even binding decisions remain on paper if there is no pressure and clearer action to implement them. Ignoring the implementation of binding decisions gives the feeling that international norms can be ignored without consequences. Impunity undermines the credibility of legal instruments and makes them meaningless. It is in this context it becomes clear why the absence of progress in outside mediation has been crucial in spurring Azerbaijan’s military option (Alieva). When diplomacy is not working, opponents might resort to force as the only way to change the situation for the better side. After its military success, Azerbaijan strengthened its alliance with Turkey, confirming that the use of force can be more effective than participation in international negotiations. This weakens the positions of multilateral structures like the UN and OSCE. This dynamic can lead to instability and increased violence in solving problems in the future. When countries become disillusioned with the effectiveness of universal norms, the established way of life collapses, where there is no framework.
Despite its success in the conflict, Azerbaijan faces the outcome of the crisis as well. Aleksandre Kvakhadze writes: “the realization of the announced infrastructure projects and the complete restoration of the region’s infrastructure will require, besides the time, several billion dollars.” In addition to finances, we need qualified personnel, coordination between central and local authorities, as well as stable institutional mechanisms.
The consequences of the conflict are not limited to the direct result of the fighting in the regions and require an integrated approach to address the problem in depth.
Possible Solutions
Although the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh officially does not exist anymore, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be considered over. Its consequences are still taking place. When solving the problem, it is worth paying attention not only to the post-war regional problems.
Firstly, it is important to update international mediation mechanisms, because the structure of the OSCE Minsk Group, for example, has shown its ineffectiveness. Moreover, as the report of the International Crisis Group highlights, more than twenty years of negotiations brokered by U.S., French, and Russian diplomats failed to yield meaningful progress, Azerbaijan launched a war to take back its territories by force. This shows that existing structures of peacemaking showed a lack of results, representing diplomacy as a meaningless process that couldn’t stop the escalation of the conflict. The renewal of the mechanisms should include clear, new formats of control of the stability. And the failure to meet the requirements of the structure would be penalized with sanctions or other things.
Nevertheless, efforts have been made in recent years to normalize relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan through the mediation of the European Union. The closest the sides came to compromise was under EU mediation (Vartanyan). Brussels proposed a model based on the post-2008 Georgia–Russia precedent, in which an independent foreign operator manages the logistics of routes through the disputed regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and shares data with all parties (Vartanyan). However, the EU-led negotiations stalled amid renewed border clashes and the 2023 crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh that ended its existence as an ethnic Armenian enclave (Vartanyan). This shows that even with a realistic and proven mediation model, the EU has not been able to prevent escalation of the conflict. This is because of the lack of diplomatic pressure and the inability to ensure monitoring on the ground. Also, there were no effective enforcement mechanisms, which also weakened the influence of the European Union as a mediator.
Secondly, the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains unclear. In March 2024, the parties finalized the preparation of the text of the agreement, but its signing was blocked due to Azerbaijan’s demand to amend the Constitution of Armenia. According to the International Crisis Group’s report, “Azerbaijan reiterated the demand, which it had been making publicly for more than a year, that Armenia change its constitution before being bound by any agreement.” Baku believes that the preamble of Armenian’s constitution has references to illegal territorial claims. Armenia declares that the reform process was initiated internally and will be completed no earlier than 2026. In that situation, the EU offers Armenia to sign a commitment to complete the reform (International Crisis Group). While the reform is in the process, there should be a mitigating side that would regularly report the situation to the security structures.
As of March 2025, after a series of negotiations, “”The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia confirmed the fact that the draft “Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan”, has been agreed upon, as well as the agreement of this draft. Therefore, the peace agreement is ready to be signed. The Republic of Armenia is ready to start discussions with the Republic of Azerbaijan on the date and place of signing the agreement””, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Thirdly, there is still an issue with the rights of displaced people. If Azerbaijan fails to secure property rights for them, then the Armenian side may find itself in a more favorable position in the international arena (Kvakhadze). To solve this problem, Azerbaijan must do its part so as not to lose its credibility in the international community. Compensation funds and support from international organizations for return and reintegration are needed to reduce discontent and tension.
It is also worth reducing any risk of escalation. The International Crisis Group states that Brussels should urge the two sides to commit to risk reduction measures, which could be especially important during the sensitive period before an agreement is signed. […] that would seek to reduce the military presence along the border and create mechanisms for defusing the risk that accidents and miscalculations could create an escalatory dynamic. This measure will be especially useful due to the uncertainty of signing the agreement and the expectation of reform on the part of Armenia.
Fourthly, Armenia must also make efforts to prevent the escalation of the conflict. It is important that the Armenian side officially recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, which will become the basis for a sustainable peace agreement. In addition, it is worth rejecting any statements suggesting territorial claims and supporting political and educational initiatives aimed at reconciliation. It is important to cooperate within the framework of international conflict prevention mechanisms. These may include measures to reduce the military presence along the border and create mechanisms to neutralize the risks associated with incidents and miscalculations that could provoke escalation. These steps are especially relevant in the context of the uncertainty surrounding the signing of the agreement and the expectation of reforms on the part of Armenia. At the same time, the recent steps of the parties inspire some hope for finding a mutually acceptable solution. As it became known to Middle East Eye, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev plan to meet in Dubai later this month, as the two countries continue negotiations on a peace agreement.
Without steps towards a deep solution to the problem, regions and international security will continue to be vulnerable to new outbreaks of conflict and violence.
Conclusion
Overall, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh turned out not just as a regional territorial problem, but as a serious interstate conflict, showing the weakness of the existing system of international law, the security system and the low effectiveness of international institutions created to resolve such conflicts. By ignoring early signs of escalation, the international community showed its inability to overcome even “small” conflicts. Therefore, it is clear that in order to fully mitigate the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and overcome its consequences, the system of international organizations needs reform to increase the effectiveness of their decisions in similar conflicts.
Notes and References
- Alieva, Leila. “Nagorny Karabakh: The Consequences of International Inaction.” Institute for War and Peace Reporting, 3 Oct. 2023, iwpr.net/global-voices/nagorny-karabakh-consequences-international-inaction.
- “Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict.” President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, president.az/en/pages/view/azerbaijan/karabakh. Accessed 22 June 2025.
- Center for Preventative Action. “Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict .” Council on Foreign Relations, 20 Mar. 2025, www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict.
- “Nagorno-Karabakh: Far-Reaching Consequences of a Neglected Conflict.” CIVICUS LENS, 10 Nov. 2023, lens.civicus.org/nagorno-karabakh-far-reaching-consequences-of-a-neglected-conflict/.
- Ertl, Michael. “Nagorno-Karabakh: Conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenians Explained.” BBC News, 28 Sept. 2023, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66852070.
- Galustyan, Artem. “War and Myth: What Is Happening in Nagorno-Karabakh.” Forbes, 13 Apr. 2016, www.forbes.ru/novosti/obshchestvo/317775-voina-i-mif-chto-proiskhodit-v-nagornom-karabakhe.
- International Crisis Group. “Armenia and Azerbaijan: Getting the Peace Agreement across the Finish Line.” International Crisis Group, 22 May 2025, www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/armenian-azerbaijani-conflict/armenia-and-azerbaijan-getting-peace-agreement-across-finish-line.
- Kvakhadze, Aleksandre. “After the Karabakh War: Key Issues of Politics and Security.” Rondeli Foundation, 23 June 2021, gfsis.org.ge/publications/view/2994.
- Light, Felix. “What Is the History of the Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan? .” Reuters, 13 Mar. 2025, www.reuters.com/world/what-is-history-conflict-between-armenia-azerbaijan-2025-03-13/.
- “MFA Statement.” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, 13 Mar. 2025, www.mfa.am/en/interviews-articles-and-comments/2025/03/13/mfa_statement/13114.
- “Nagorno-Karabakh.” Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, inc., 15 June 2025, www.britannica.com/place/Nagorno-Karabakh.
- Schmitt, Michael, and Kevin Coble. “The Evolving Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict – an International Law Perspective – Part II.” Lieber Institute West Point, 29 Sept. 2023, lieber.westpoint.edu/evolving-nagorno-karabakh-conflict-international-law-perspective-part-ii/.
- Soylu, Ragip. “Azerbaijani and Armenian Leaders to Meet in Dubai Later in July.” Middle East Eye, 2 July 2025, www.middleeasteye.net/news/azerbaijan-aliyev-and-armenia-pashinyan-meet-dubai.
- “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Visual Explainer .” International Crisis Group, www.crisisgroup.org/content/nagorno-karabakh-conflict-visual-explainer. Accessed 22 June 2025.
- “Two More Conditions. Why Armenia and Azerbaijan Have Not yet Signed a Peace Treaty?” BBC News Russian Service, www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c2lzjw9gn0wo. Accessed 22 June 2025.
- Vartanyan, Olesya. “Why Armenia Is Seeking to Normalize Relations with Turkiye.” Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, 1 July 2025, carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/06/armenia-turkiye-rapprochement?lang=en.
