Report on the International seminar on
“India’s Geopolitical and Logistical Outreach to Central Asia “,
21-22 April 2022

The two day international seminar on “India’s Geopolitical and Logistical Outreach to Central Asia” evoked a lot of interest and was highly stimulating. The seminar threw up new ideas for discussion, thereby adding to our understanding of the region. The audience retained their interest till the end.

In order to understand the present day Central Asia, it is necessary to examine the geopolitical region in which they are located. Today two important issues impinge on its stability and security. The prevailing uncertainty in Afghanistan was hotly debated. On this issue two divergent view-points were put forward. One view as put forward by the Central Asian States (CAS ) that it was necessary to interact with the Taliban without recognising the regime, was necessary. Tajikistan did not concur with this view and do not engage with the Taliban in any way. However, it was stressed that development activity was necessary, lest an isolated Afghanistan becomes a rogue state on their borders. Hence engagement with the Taliban at least for developmental purposes should be under taken. One view believably, pointed out that the Taliban had changed. The second argument stated that India should not engage with the Taliban, as it does not enjoy legitimacy. Or international recognition. Today Afghanistan stands isolated in the international system. Moreover what kind of development initiative can be undertaken? What can roads and rail network accomplish with a moribund economy.

The second issue that impinges on Central Asian stability and security is the uncontrolled drug trafficking, smuggling of arms, etc. The recent violent border clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, were reportedly incited by the drug mafia. The mafia was averse to the border agreement between the two countries, as it would have hampered the smooth transfer of the contraband from Afghanistan. Though the Taliban has banned the cultivation of poppy its decree is ineffective as there are no enforcement agencies who could enforce it. On the other hand the drug cartels and organised crime personnel are rampant and active. The drug mafia oversees the passage of drugs; from the field to the border.

Besides, how will the Russian military intervention in Ukraine impact on Central Asia. The CAS are likely to come under intense pressure for pursuing certain policies. The recent protests in Kazakhstan were, reportedly engineered by Russia. An observation by a Russian journalist is apt “We do not want a second Ukraine”. However, it is also likely that India Russia ties will come under pressure. Would it affect Indian attempts to increase its engagement with the CAS, its strategic neighbourhood? It is important for India, as in September 2022 India will take over the Chairmanship of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Probably Indian efforts in Central Asia could be stymied.

Coming to the central focus of the seminar; connectivity and transport corridors various options were put forward. Prominent among these was the Iranian port of Chabahar; a multi modal corridor a combination of sea, surface transport and rail link that reaches Uzbekistan via Afghanistan. The second option was the Trans Afghan Corridor, a single mode corridor by surface transport (Karachi- Peshawar- Afghanistan-Uzbekistan) The Uzbek participants and Mr. Arash Younoshi President of Balkh, Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Afghanistan, forcefully argued in favour of the Trans Afghan Corridor. Another option used by India is via the Jebel Ali port in Dubai to reach Central Asia. From the perspective of single mode corridor a brief mention was made via the Attari/ Wagah border to for transportation via Pakistan- Afghanistan and Uzbekistan.

In the ensuing discussion it was pointed out Chabahar is still ‘work in progress’ and a rail link from Zahedan to Sarrakhs (Turkmenistan ) needs to be urgently constructed, as the passage through Afghanistan has to be avoided in view of the prevailing uncertain security situation. The Trans Afghan Corridor may not find favour with Indian transporters and traders given the troubled India Pakistan relations. The consensus was in favour of Chabahar for India.

The Chabahar route is India’s preferred option. Apart from troubled relations with Pakistan, the Trans Afghan Corridor passes through treacherous territory. It’s easier to deal with problems, difficulties relating to Chabahar in consultation with the Iranian government. In-fact, the advantages that accrue from Chabahar far outweigh the disadvantages. Coming to the advantages that accrue to India, is that cargo /containers, though delayed, reaches the destination. The participants from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan appreciated India’s vaccine diplomacy and the support rendered by it. Mr Khashinov, Director-Minister for Investment and Foreign Trade, Tashkent, pointed out the main direction of India Uzbekistan Cooperation. He suggested construction of medical centres, the production of building materials, the development of information and communication technologies, energy, chemical technologies, light industry etc. Professor Laura Yerekesheva of Al Farabi National University, Almaty also mentioned cooperation in Information Technology, agriculture and biotechnology. Professor Zamira Muratalieva of Russian Kyrgyz Slavic University mentioned defence cooperation. An important area for cooperation, Kyrgyzstan is extremely rich in minerals and this area for cooperation needs to be explored. A Preferential Trade Agreement between India and the CAS would go a long way in enhancing economic activities and cooperation.

While areas of cooperation hold immense promise there are problems and issues connected with the smooth functioning of the Chabahar route that should be resolved through dialogue. Among the issues mentioned was the failure of Indian exporters to obtain a Bank Realization Certificate Without the certificate exporters cannot claim their dues. This is because all the Indian Banks’ Nostro accounts are in the U S. Other disadvantages flagged were lack of awareness among traders and exporters, and freight forwarding agencies, shortage of manpower, currency conversion, devaluation, etc. In order to address the challenges a valuable suggestion was made “to hold a joint forum with the participation of representatives of transport structures of India, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries in order to develop a general line and a unified strategy”. This would create better awareness among the traders and exporters, and facilitate the smooth functioning of the Chabahar transport corridor.

At the regional level; the threats to Central Asian security emanate from transnational characters and their nefarious activities, are carried out by non-state actors. This poses a grave danger to sovereignty and territorial integrity of the states. These insidious forces are entrenched in Afghanistan, and have acquired the ability to use modern weapons and technology. “The Central Asian states are facing new forms of terrorism such as terror financing, arms and drug trafficking, dissemination of a radical ideology and abuse of cyber space to spread disinformation and incite violence “Mr. Habibullo, Deputy Head of Mission, Embassy of the Republic of Tajikistan”. Another issue confronting the CAS is their serious differences over the sharing of water of the two life giving rivers; Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Since the CAS are agrarian based economies water is essential. So far they have adopted a bilateral approach to this issue. It’s necessary to approach the water issue from a multidimensional perspective. An equally difficult issue is the border disputes among the countries. This is acute in the Fergana valley straddling Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. All the three issues mentioned are grave and should be addressed by the CAS themselves.

The next presentation highlighted on the need to further expand India Uzbekistan relations. The Delhi Declaration of January 2022 amply demonstrated the urgent need for connectivity and transport corridors to link up with landlocked Central Asia. The Delhi Declaration was the outcome of a virtual meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the five Presidents of CAS.

SEMINAR PARTICIPANTS :

• Professor A Khaydarov of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Tashkent;
• Professor Zamira Muratalieva of Russian Slavic University, Bishkek;
• Ambassador A. Isaev of the Kyrgyz Republic in India;
• Mr Habibullo Mirzozoda, Deputy Chief of Mission of the Embassy of the Republic of Tajikistan in India;
• Professor Laura Yerekesheva, of the Al Farabi National University, Almaty;
• Mr Khashinov Director of Transport and Logistics Department of the MIFT Uzbekistan;
• Mr A. Abduvakhid, Tashkent;
• Mr. Arash Younisi President Balkh Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Afghanistan;
• Mr. Mansurov of the Uzbek Embassy in India;
• Ms. Catherine Lemery of the Embassy of the United States to India;
• Mr. Jason Wilcox of the Embassy of the United States to India;
• Capt. Alok Bansal (retd) India Foundation;
• Ambassador Amar Sinha (retd);
• Maj Gen G. Jaishankar (retd);
• Maj Gen B K Sharma (retd);
• Ambassador Ashok Sharma (retd);
• Professor Rajan Harshe (retd) former Professor in the Central University of Hyderabad and Vice Chancellor of Allahabad University;
• Prof. Sanjay Pandey SIS-JNU;
• Mr. Dipanjan Roy Chaudary Diplomatic Editor Economic Times;
• Dr. Uttam Sinha MP-IDSA;
• Prof. Mahesh R. Depata JNU;
• Dr. Pravesh Gupta VIF;
• Vice Adm Shekhar Sinha (retd) India Foundation;
• Dr. Sunil Kumar;
• Mr. Pankaj Tripathi;
• Ms. Kajal Katariya, Shiv Nadar University;
• Prof. Govind Inakhiya, BHU;
• Prof. H.N. Topo, Jadavpur University;
• Dr Jyotsna Choudhri, Managing Director of Breeze-India Group of Companies, Delhi;
• Dr Kamala Kumari Assistant Professor Delhi University;
• Dr. Raj Kumar Sharma JNU;
• Dr. Ved Pratap Vaidik journalist;
• Gp Capt R. K. Singh (retd ) and
• Mrs. R.K Singh;
• Mr. Ashish Nair, OSAI;
• Mr Shreeram, Director (retd) CII;
• Brig. Devinder Singh (retd);
• Mr. Navjot Singh U.S. Embassy;
• Mr. Ashok Pandey IAS (retd);
• Mr. Rajan Arya Pentagon Press, Delhi; amongst others.