Introduction

The Second Termez Dialogue, held in Tashkent from 4–6 June 2026 under the theme “Peace, Connectivity, and Prosperity: Building a Shared Future,” reaffirmed the growing importance of connectivity between Central and South Asia as a fundamental driver of regional peace, economic development, and long-term stability. Connectivity is no longer understood solely in terms of physical infrastructure or trade networks. Instead, it has increasingly emerged as a broader political and diplomatic framework that facilitates regional cooperation, strengthens mutual trust, and promotes sustainable partnerships across Eurasia.¹

The expanding body of academic research on Central–South Asian relations over the past two decades reflects the changing dynamics of the international system. Growing economic interdependence, geopolitical realignments, and intensified cross-border interactions have reshaped the nature of regional cooperation. Contemporary international politics is increasingly characterised by interconnected regional spaces where political, economic, strategic, and socio-cultural interests overlap. As traditional geopolitical boundaries become less rigid, new forms of cooperation and competition are developing, creating opportunities for deeper regional integration while also generating complex security and governance challenges.²

Within this evolving international environment, Central and South Asia should be viewed as closely linked regional systems whose development is influenced not only by domestic political and economic conditions but also by broader global transformations. Shifting patterns of globalisation, competition over transport and trade corridors, energy security, and the reorganisation of international supply chains have reinforced the strategic significance of connectivity between the two regions. Consequently, strengthening interregional cooperation has become essential for advancing sustainable development, enhancing regional resilience, and promoting long-term stability across the wider Eurasian landscape.

Research Novelty and Author’s Thesis

The principal contribution of this study lies in reinterpreting connectivity between Central and South Asia as more than a matter of transport infrastructure or geo-economic cooperation. Instead, it conceptualizes connectivity as an evolving political and diplomatic framework that possesses its own institutional character and strategic relevance. In this context, interregional connectivity should not be viewed merely as an extension of externally driven geopolitical initiatives. Rather, it is increasingly emerging as a regionally owned strategy shaped by the collective efforts of Central and South Asian states through diplomatic engagement, institutional cooperation, and integrated transport networks. This evolution reflects a broader shift from perceiving connectivity as a physical infrastructure project to recognising it as a comprehensive strategy for promoting regional cooperation, resilience, and sustainable development.

Theoretical Foundations of Connectivity Research

Realistic Approach

The realist perspective provides an important foundation for understanding connectivity between Central and South Asia by highlighting the influence of power politics, national interests, and security concerns. According to realist theory, the international system is inherently anarchic, compelling states to prioritise survival, strategic autonomy, and the preservation of national interests.³ Within this framework, Central and South Asia constitute a strategically significant geopolitical space where interstate competition, security calculations, and the balance of power strongly influence regional interactions. Persistent challenges such as political instability, terrorism, cross-border extremism, and competition among external powers further reinforce the relevance of realism in explaining patterns of cooperation and conflict across the two regions.

Liberal Approach

In contrast, the liberal perspective emphasises the importance of cooperation, economic interdependence, and institutional engagement as the primary drivers of regional connectivity.⁴From this standpoint, expanding trade, improving transport infrastructure, encouraging investment flows, and strengthening multilateral institutions create opportunities for mutual benefit and long-term stability. Connectivity is therefore understood not only as an economic objective but also as a mechanism for enhancing trust, reducing transaction costs, and encouraging peaceful interaction among neighbouring states. Liberal theory suggests that deeper economic integration can generate shared interests that contribute to sustainable regional development.

Constructivist Approach

Constructivism offers a complementary interpretation by arguing that international relations are shaped not solely by material capabilities but also by ideas, identities, historical experiences, and social interactions.⁵The long-standing historical links between Central and South Asia, particularly those established through the Silk Road, have created enduring cultural connections and shared regional identities. These historical narratives continue to influence contemporary diplomacy by fostering mutual understanding and providing a normative basis for expanding cooperation. Consequently, connectivity is viewed not only as a material process but also as a socially constructed phenomenon rooted in shared historical and cultural experiences.

Regional Security Complex Theory

Another significant theoretical perspective is the Regional Security Complex Theory developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver, which argues that neighbouring regions often function as interconnected security systems.⁶From this perspective, Central and South Asia are linked by a range of common security challenges, including terrorism, religious extremism, illicit drug trafficking, transnational organised crime, and irregular migration. Within this framework, Afghanistan occupies a pivotal position as a geographical and strategic bridge connecting the two regions. The country’s political stability therefore remains essential for strengthening regional connectivity and advancing broader security cooperation.

Macro-Regionalism and Emerging Geopolitical Configurations

Recent scholarship increasingly examines connectivity through the broader framework of macro-regionalism, recognising Central Asia as an integral part of larger geopolitical and geo-economic spaces, including Eurasia, the Indo-Pacific, East–West transport corridors, and North–South connectivity initiatives.⁷ This perspective broadens the significance of interregional cooperation by highlighting its role in promoting economic integration, strengthening strategic partnerships, and facilitating closer interaction across extensive transcontinental networks. As a result, connectivity has become an important component of emerging geopolitical configurations that extend beyond traditional regional boundaries.

Indian Perspective on Connectivity

Indian scholarship has also made significant contributions to the study of regional connectivity, particularly through the Connect Central Asia Policy, which seeks to deepen India’s engagement with Central Asia in the fields of trade, energy, transport, technology, and regional cooperation.⁸ This policy reflects India’s broader strategic objective of expanding its economic presence across Eurasia, improving access to regional markets and energy resources, and strengthening its geopolitical influence. At the same time, it provides a balanced approach to regional engagement by enhancing India’s strategic partnerships while responding to the growing influence of other major powers in the Eurasian region. Through this multidimensional strategy, connectivity is viewed not only as an instrument of economic development but also as a key element of India’s long-term regional and foreign policy objectives.

Political-Diplomatic Significance of the Termez Dialogue

Institutionalized diplomatic platforms play a vital role in strengthening cooperation and dialogue between Central and South Asia. Among these initiatives, the Termez Dialogue, introduced by Uzbekistan, has emerged as a significant mechanism for promoting interregional engagement.⁹ Its second meeting, held in June 2026, reinforced the platform’s growing importance amid evolving geopolitical and geo-economic dynamics. Historically, the city of Termez has served as a strategic centre for trade, cultural interaction, and civilizational exchange, linking the peoples of Central and South Asia for centuries.¹⁰ Building upon this historical legacy, the Termez Dialogue performs four important political and diplomatic functions. First, it provides a platform for experts and policymakers to discuss regional security challenges. Second, it supports Trans-Afghan connectivity, particularly by encouraging the development of the Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan railway corridor.¹¹ Third, it promotes a new regional narrative by viewing Afghanistan as a partner in connectivity rather than solely as a source of instability. Finally, it contributes to the institutionalization of sustained interregional cooperation through regular dialogue and collaborative mechanisms. Consequently, the Termez Dialogue reflects a broader transformation from regional isolation towards constructive engagement and long-term partnership.

Geo-Economic Dimension of Connectivity

The geo-economic significance of connectivity is reflected in the expanding economic engagement between Central and South Asia, particularly at a time when global supply chains are undergoing significant transformation. As regional economies become increasingly interconnected, connectivity has emerged as a strategic instrument for promoting trade, investment, and sustainable economic growth. Major initiatives supporting this process include the Trans-Afghan transport corridors, improved access to Indian Ocean ports, the CASA-1000 electricity transmission project, the TAPI gas pipeline, and the development of multimodal logistics networks.¹² These initiatives not only facilitate the movement of goods, energy, and services but also enhance regional integration and economic resilience. In the contemporary geopolitical environment, transport infrastructure has evolved beyond its traditional economic function to become an important tool for strengthening strategic autonomy, expanding geopolitical influence, and improving regional competitiveness.

 Connectivity Diplomacy as a New Foreign Policy Paradigm

The growing emphasis on regional integration has contributed to the emergence of connectivity diplomacy as a new paradigm in foreign policy. This approach incorporates several complementary dimensions, including corridor diplomacy, infrastructure investment, supply-chain cooperation, and interregional dialogue platforms. Collectively, these instruments strengthen political trust while advancing economic integration and regional cooperation. For Uzbekistan, connectivity diplomacy has become an increasingly important component of its foreign policy strategy, reflecting its commitment to promoting regional stability, expanding cross-border partnerships, and positioning itself as a key facilitator of cooperation between Central and South Asia.¹³

Conclusion

This study highlights that connectivity between Central and South Asia extends well beyond the conventional understanding of transport infrastructure and trade networks. It should instead be viewed as a multidimensional political and strategic concept that incorporates geo-economic interests, geopolitical dynamics, institutional cooperation, civilizational linkages, and diplomatic engagement. Given its complexity, no single theory of International Relations is sufficient to explain the evolving nature of interregional connectivity. Rather, a comprehensive understanding requires integrating insights from realism, liberalism, constructivism, and regionalism, each of which captures different dimensions of the political, economic, and social processes shaping cooperation between the two regions.¹⁴

As noted in the Global Risks Report 2026, the international system is entering a period marked by strategic uncertainty, geopolitical fragmentation, and increasing competition over transport routes and connectivity corridors.¹⁵ In this changing environment, Central and South Asia are no longer peripheral regions but are emerging as important components of the broader Eurasian geopolitical and economic landscape. At the same time, regional connectivity is becoming increasingly driven by the initiatives and policy choices of the states within the region rather than by external major powers. In this evolving framework, Uzbekistan has assumed a proactive role by advancing diplomatic initiatives aimed at strengthening interregional cooperation.

Among these initiatives, the Termez Dialogue has emerged as one of the most significant institutional platforms for promoting political and diplomatic engagement.¹⁶ Its importance extends beyond expert consultations, as it is gradually developing into a sustainable mechanism for strengthening cooperation, fostering mutual trust, and enhancing coordination between Central and South Asia.

The long-term success of regional connectivity will depend on several interrelated factors, including sustained peace and stability in Afghanistan, continued investment in transport and logistics infrastructure, stronger institutional mechanisms, and closer policy coordination among regional governments. Ultimately, connectivity should be recognised not merely as an academic concept but as a strategic instrument capable of advancing peace, economic integration, and sustainable development across Eurasia. Supported by political commitment, effective diplomacy, and resilient institutions, it has the potential to shape a new paradigm of interregional cooperation in which connectivity serves as an independent driver of regional order and long-term prosperity rather than simply a consequence of globalisation.

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